Sunday, October 12, 2008

If History Repeats, McCain Will See Defeat

According to the results of past elections, John McCain's deficit in the polls may be too much to overcome.  

An article by John Harwood in The New York Times has brought this issue to my attention.  The article states that Barack Obama is ahead in the Gallup poll, leading 50% to McCain's 43%.  Coming back from this large a deficit has only been achieved by Ronald Reagan in 1980, when he also trailed Jimmy Carter by seven points.

The article also discusses how other candidates have overcome large deficits, but have ended up losing the election, with the most recent being Al Gore in the 2000 election, in which he lost the electoral college vote, but actually won the popular vote.  Though McCain has almost no chance of taking away the popularity Obama has among minorities, his campaign has said that among undecided voters, it sees 20% of whites as a group that can be convinced of McCain's ability and that should be focused on.  This group apparently includes single, younger voters as well as female voters and those who have little education.

I began reading this article, but was shocked when I read this campaign target strategy.  It bothers me that it has come to such the point that candidates see voters as sheep: easy to herd and categorize, not to mention capable of being coaxed into walking into an area with no walls all while thinking its a good idea.

Though the government basically needs to hit the reset button, or somehow create a way to both bring Franklin Roosevelt back to life and give him immortality, our society is also to blame for the way things have become.  We have lost sight of the things that matter, and harp on the things that don't.  We have forgotten Abraham Lincoln's words from the Gettysburg Address, "...a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, shall not perish from the earth."  It has become a government of the people who worry about few or are known by many, supposedly by the people though the people don't always get who they chose, and is for the people who make enough money to benefit the government.  

Since history often repeats itself, perhaps we should study and try not to our lose our notes.